I don't know who Mel Kiper is. But his son is an overpaid television sports personality who I mute every time I see his face and fruity mop on the tube.I mean, what does this guy do? Really. And is what he does worth the money he's paid?
Well I'll tell you what he does and it isn't anywhere close to being worth the check he cashes from ESPN.
Mel Kiper, Jr. pretty much just provides general information to fans about potential NFL draft picks. That's it. He's a cheap scout who is paid like an entire team of NFL scouts. He rambles on and on about how the information he provides is golden and what each NFL team needs to do in order to have a successful draft. And God forbid if your opinion differs from his. He'll start jerking his head up and down. He'll look around the room with that Peyton Manning face of disgust.
Every year ESPN hypes his mock drafts and touts him as "King Kiper," but for what? His analysis of college players is nothing special. He's even been accused of over-hyping prospects on his draft boards based on their player-agent relationships.
For instance, in 2010 he had Notre Dame's Jimmy Clausen ranked as the top college quarterback and the No. 4 overall talented player entering the draft. Scouts, Inc. had Oklahoma's Sam Bradford as the top QB and No. 3 overall talent, with Clausen ranked at No. 38.
Anyone with a pulse knew Kiper's analysis was dead wrong. Notre Dame hadn't produced a solid NFL quarterback in more than 30 years (Joe Montana, 1978). So naturally, Bradford was selected No. 1 overall and completed 60 percent of his passes as a rookie. He tallied 3,512 passing yards, 18 TDs, 15 INTs and had a QB rating of 76.5.
Clausen was taken in the 2nd round (No. 48 overall) by a team with NO quarterback. He completed 52 percent of his passes, totaling 1,558 yards, 3 TD passes and 9 picks. QB rating: 58.4. After that Brady Quinn-like stat line (and now that "Yes I" Cam Newton has been drafted by the Panthers) I wouldn't be surprised if Clausen never again reached QB1 on another depth chart.
So how could Kiper get this so incredibly wrong? Isn't he the top dog? The draft expert? And isn't quarterback ALWAYS the most talked-about and hyped position heading into the draft? Well maybe, just maybe, it's because Clausen's agent is a longtime friend of Kiper's?
Another time, a couple years ago, Kiper projected that a junior running back would be drafted by no later than the top few picks of the 2nd round. There was buzz around Virginia Tech's campus and the kid ended up leaving school early. After all, Kiper's word is golden. Right? The kid ended up being drafted No. 243 overall, now makes the league minimum and mostly stands on the sidelines on Sundays holding his helmet, wondering what could have been had he remained on campus, finished his degree and bolstered his draft position by playing his senior season. Damn you Mel Kiper, Jr.!
Kiper usually starts generating his mock drafts one week after bowl season. He calls the first installment "Mock Draft 1.0." How trendy! Kiper released his 2011 "Mock Draft 1.0" on Jan. 19. Of the 32 first round picks, Kiper's initial mock draft had 2 that were right. Yep. Two.
With each month leading up to the draft, he updates his mock draft as a Mock Draft 2.0, Mock Draft 3.0 ... and so on.
He released his polished and sparkling "Mock Draft 5.0" the day before the 2011 NFL Draft. This was after shuffling players up and down and all around, based on having nothing else to do in life but scour over more and more film, dissect the NFL Combine, and listen to the buzz from NFL teams about who they were going to target on draft day, etc. He waits until the last possible second before his editors at ESPN.com scream "DEADLINE, MEL! WE NEED VERSION 5.0 STAT!!!! DEADLINE!" ... then, he releases his best million-dollar effort.
"Mock Draft 5.0" yielded 9 correct picks out of the 32 first round selections.
That's a 28 percent success rate, which is clearly better than the first installment of only 6 percent correct. So pretty much every 5 mock drafts he increases his percentage by 22.
If we weren't already overexposed to his weird face, I'd suggest he try generating more mock drafts. Because, you know, by the time he got around to "Mock Draft 20.0" he might have a success rate of 94 percent.
And that, my friends, might be worth the check.
